The Turkish Mediation and the Deepening Rift Between the Sudanese Army and the Islamic Movement

On January 5, 2025, Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Yusuf announced that General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan had accepted the Turkish mediation initiative aimed at resolving tensions between Sudan and the United Arab Emirates. According to leaked information, the proposal includes a one-year ceasefire and a settlement between the warring parties, under which the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) would withdraw from Khartoum and Al-Jazira in exchange for autonomy in Darfur. This announcement has triggered intense discussions within Sudan's political and military circles, particularly between the army and the Islamic Movement, which has historically maintained a strong influence over the military establishment.

The reported acceptance of the Turkish initiative has fueled speculation that the army is willing to make significant compromises to end the ongoing conflict. This has led to growing tensions within the Islamic Movement, which perceives any form of settlement with the RSF as a betrayal of their long-standing political and ideological stance. Some voices within the movement argue that agreeing to the Turkish proposal effectively legitimizes the RSF’s role in Sudan’s political landscape, something they have strongly opposed. The possibility of granting autonomy to Darfur in exchange for an RSF withdrawal has further complicated the situation, as many within the Islamic Movement view this as a dangerous precedent that could encourage other regions to seek similar arrangements.

Amid these tensions, reports have emerged suggesting that the army is preparing a large-scale crackdown on key figures from the former regime, many of whom are closely associated with the Islamic Movement. If these reports are accurate, this move would signal a dramatic shift in the army’s approach and could deepen internal divisions within the military. Many officers in the armed forces have long-standing ties to the Islamic Movement, and any attempt to purge their ranks could provoke strong resistance from within. This potential confrontation raises concerns about the stability of the army itself, as internal rifts could weaken its ability to maintain control during this critical period.

The political fallout from these developments could be significant. If the army is seen as aligning itself with external mediators and distancing itself from the Islamic Movement, it may seek new political alliances to consolidate its position. This could include forging closer ties with civilian political factions that favor a negotiated settlement or aligning with regional actors that support the Turkish initiative. On the other hand, the Islamic Movement is unlikely to remain passive in the face of these shifts. It may mobilize its supporters against the army’s leadership, using the perceived concessions to the RSF and the rumored crackdown on its members as rallying points to challenge the military’s authority.

As Sudan navigates this turbulent period, the reported acceptance of the Turkish mediation initiative could mark a turning point in the country’s power dynamics. The growing rift between the army and the Islamic Movement is likely to escalate, potentially leading to unpredictable consequences that could further complicate Sudan’s already fragile political and security situation. If tensions continue to rise, the country may find itself facing not only the ongoing conflict between the army and the RSF but also a deepening internal struggle within the military itself.